First of all, I would like to thank all of you who are reading us. We are welcome Marc on our interview who will explain his sports betting strategy on draws in football – this is a rather confusing approach since playing on draws is not necessarily what comes to mind, but his sports betting strategy is profitable.
Sports betting strategy: betting on draws!
J: – Welcome Marc. You are a semi-professional bettor since you have a job next door and for betting, you specialize in draws. Let me give you an example: today, you already have more than 70 bets for January to March 2019 season, you have a rather nice ROI of 30 profit units. Can you tell us about your sports betting strategy and explain why you went in that direction?
M: – For a long time and again recently, I followed people but I had set my mind to produce my own prognostication. So I looked for a sports betting strategy. I was first interested in home wins, then away victories, just based on statistics because I only rely on statistics. When it didn’t work, I thought I’d try it with the draws. And I started to have a positive ROI so I continued along that path. After two years, it has become easier for me to put everything on my own betting blog because it is synthetic, we have the results that are displayed in terms of ROI, profits etc.
J: – This allows you to follow up. You can’t cheat because you can’t change them. This serves as a “business card” and shows your skills. How many bets do you have on your blog?
M: – This month, I will reach 28.
J: – 28 bets, it’s starting to talk! From a certain number of bets, it is no longer the variance – what is called luck to simplify – that comes into play, but the skills and we can tell if a method works. And you clearly have the skills. I rebound on what you said: you don’t care about the composition of the teams and you only rely on statistics.
M: – For more than a year – 3 years if you count my history before I published my bets – I focused only on leagues that averaged more than 30-35% draws. I spotted the tightest games and took those that could end in a draw. But since I launched my paid service, I have started to have customers, so comments and expectations. I had to adapt to the demand, so I had to review my sports betting strategy a little bit and also do the biggest market I’ve ever done. I used to do more secondary school than in the big market.
J: – This is called the niche market, niche divisions with fewer media coverage and less financial flow. Today, to your credit, you have been more interested in mass divisions such as League 1, the English Premier League, the Bundesliga etc. You changed your mind but still kept good results. That said, we have to be completely honest: you made September 2016 in the red. Starting the season in the red, it must have been a bit of a panic on board for a lot of people who are following you! But you stayed true to your line of conduct. You hit the ground running in October and it works well in November, you caught up with September and even made a profit of 30-35 units. You play about one unit per game, right?
M: – I only do one unit per bet, I play flat.
J: – I explain for those who don’t know it: in flat betting, you play at equal mass, i.e. you play the same amount of money on a bet every time.
M: – That’s it. Before this year, I went from 1 to 5, with a lot of 1 because it represented 80% of my bets but sometimes I had higher confidence. I prefer not to do it anymore because it makes people less afraid. With a €20 bet unit, if you go from €20 to €100, it can be scary. Variance exists, yes. You were talking about March 2019, but I didn’t get any negative comments. I even received some encouragement. In systems where you bet odds at 3-3.5 or higher, there has to be some variance. Sometimes it’s negative for a month, which is what happened and it does hurt! But it is immediately rectified because the variance actually works in both directions. People need to understand that it is not always negative. It can be ultra positive – 52 units in one month on flat, I think few people can do this kind of thing! I know that over a year, there will be 3 or 4 months of negative, but I think I’m approaching my goal of 150 units a year.
J: – How much did you do last year?
M: – 130 profit units!
J: – I know you recommend betting 20€
M: – That’s what I recommend but it’s according to the bankroll. I have €2,500, so since I’m stupid and disciplined, I make 1% for each bet.
J: – So if you round up to 100 units, you doubled your capital last year! Some are bigger players and have bigger assets. If someone follows you with €10,000 and bets €100 per game, they earn €10,000 over a year! Obviously, it all depends on everyone’s capital and you should not gamble the money you need to live. Betting is only about the money you want to make grow, it’s an investment. Anyway, I’ve been following you for a while now and as much as I could be skeptical at first about draws, as much as you convinced me. If you want, we’ll do a small assessment in May or June at the end of the season. By the way, do you take a break in the summer?
M: – I didn’t take a break last year. I was 129 units ahead of the summer and I lost a little bit with the Japan markets. I’m already working on other championships that are played in the summer to see the possibilities but I don’t know yet if I will or not.
J: – I note that you just used the word “work”. As I often say, there is no magic wand, there is work behind it. If you want to earn some money, either you follow someone like Olivier or you do your own analyses but you have to spend time there. Any last words to conclude?
M: – As I said in the Club for newcomers who are a little lost: when you choose a tipster, it is not only the ROI that counts, you also have to take into account the rate of prognosis, the publication times, see if the rating has not fallen – that’s also why I have moved back into the big markets because the rating will never fall.
J: – And that’s great when you follow a tipster!
M: – Especially if you play for big money. If we put €1,000 into the Belarusian league, it won’t do it (laughs), while in the Champions League, the Premier League, it doesn’t happen, it’s very dynamic.
J: – Of course. In any case, thank you for intervening and introducing your sports betting strategy to those who follow us. I wish you a good profit.
M: – Thank you!