Sports betting strategy: how to bet on a draw on football matches?

First of all, I would like to thank all of you who are reading us. We are welcome Marc on our interview who will explain his sports betting strategy on draws in football – this is a rather confusing approach since playing on draws is not necessarily what comes to mind, but his sports betting strategy is profitable.

Sports betting strategy: betting on draws!
J: – Welcome Marc. You are a semi-professional bettor since you have a job next door and for betting, you specialize in draws. Let me give you an example: today, you already have more than 70 bets for January to March 2019 season, you have a rather nice ROI of 30 profit units. Can you tell us about your sports betting strategy and explain why you went in that direction?
M: – For a long time and again recently, I followed people but I had set my mind to produce my own prognostication. So I looked for a sports betting strategy. I was first interested in home wins, then away victories, just based on statistics because I only rely on statistics. When it didn’t work, I thought I’d try it with the draws. And I started to have a positive ROI so I continued along that path. After two years, it has become easier for me to put everything on my own betting blog because it is synthetic, we have the results that are displayed in terms of ROI, profits etc.

J: – This allows you to follow up. You can’t cheat because you can’t change them. This serves as a “business card” and shows your skills. How many bets do you have on your blog?
M: – This month, I will reach 28.

J: – 28 bets, it’s starting to talk! From a certain number of bets, it is no longer the variance – what is called luck to simplify – that comes into play, but the skills and we can tell if a method works. And you clearly have the skills. I rebound on what you said: you don’t care about the composition of the teams and you only rely on statistics.
M: – For more than a year – 3 years if you count my history before I published my bets – I focused only on leagues that averaged more than 30-35% draws. I spotted the tightest games and took those that could end in a draw. But since I launched my paid service, I have started to have customers, so comments and expectations. I had to adapt to the demand, so I had to review my sports betting strategy a little bit and also do the biggest market I’ve ever done. I used to do more secondary school than in the big market.

J: – This is called the niche market, niche divisions with fewer media coverage and less financial flow. Today, to your credit, you have been more interested in mass divisions such as League 1, the English Premier League, the Bundesliga etc. You changed your mind but still kept good results. That said, we have to be completely honest: you made September 2016 in the red. Starting the season in the red, it must have been a bit of a panic on board for a lot of people who are following you! But you stayed true to your line of conduct. You hit the ground running in October and it works well in November, you caught up with September and even made a profit of 30-35 units. You play about one unit per game, right?
M: – I only do one unit per bet, I play flat.

J: – I explain for those who don’t know it: in flat betting, you play at equal mass, i.e. you play the same amount of money on a bet every time.
M: – That’s it. Before this year, I went from 1 to 5, with a lot of 1 because it represented 80% of my bets but sometimes I had higher confidence. I prefer not to do it anymore because it makes people less afraid. With a €20 bet unit, if you go from €20 to €100, it can be scary. Variance exists, yes. You were talking about March 2019, but I didn’t get any negative comments. I even received some encouragement. In systems where you bet odds at 3-3.5 or higher, there has to be some variance. Sometimes it’s negative for a month, which is what happened and it does hurt! But it is immediately rectified because the variance actually works in both directions. People need to understand that it is not always negative. It can be ultra positive – 52 units in one month on flat, I think few people can do this kind of thing! I know that over a year, there will be 3 or 4 months of negative, but I think I’m approaching my goal of 150 units a year.
J: – How much did you do last year?
M: – 130 profit units!

J: – I know you recommend betting 20€
M: – That’s what I recommend but it’s according to the bankroll. I have €2,500, so since I’m stupid and disciplined, I make 1% for each bet.

J: – So if you round up to 100 units, you doubled your capital last year! Some are bigger players and have bigger assets. If someone follows you with €10,000 and bets €100 per game, they earn €10,000 over a year! Obviously, it all depends on everyone’s capital and you should not gamble the money you need to live. Betting is only about the money you want to make grow, it’s an investment. Anyway, I’ve been following you for a while now and as much as I could be skeptical at first about draws, as much as you convinced me. If you want, we’ll do a small assessment in May or June at the end of the season. By the way, do you take a break in the summer?
M: – I didn’t take a break last year. I was 129 units ahead of the summer and I lost a little bit with the Japan markets. I’m already working on other championships that are played in the summer to see the possibilities but I don’t know yet if I will or not.

J: – I note that you just used the word “work”. As I often say, there is no magic wand, there is work behind it. If you want to earn some money, either you follow someone like Olivier or you do your own analyses but you have to spend time there. Any last words to conclude?
M: – As I said in the Club for newcomers who are a little lost: when you choose a tipster, it is not only the ROI that counts, you also have to take into account the rate of prognosis, the publication times, see if the rating has not fallen – that’s also why I have moved back into the big markets because the rating will never fall.

J: – And that’s great when you follow a tipster!
M: – Especially if you play for big money. If we put €1,000 into the Belarusian league, it won’t do it (laughs), while in the Champions League, the Premier League, it doesn’t happen, it’s very dynamic.

J: – Of course. In any case, thank you for intervening and introducing your sports betting strategy to those who follow us. I wish you a good profit.
M: – Thank you!


Reading the odds evolution. What you need to know to be sports betting winner?

What about the evolution of sporting odds in the days before an event? You will see that this article will change your betting strategy.

Why is there a change in odds on the pregame days? I’m telling you about this because I was told that the odds I give on the blog are not the same as the ones we see an hour before the game. I will explain why and why this is a good sign for me because it was dropped. This means that I had analyzed the market well, taken a value and anticipated it a little. Last week, for example, I gave you the Montenegro-Poland match in the draw no bet at 1.35 three days before the match. The day of the game, I went to check the odds and it had dropped to around 1.27 odd. This 0.08 gap, it may seem like a small difference but in truth, it represents almost 23% in profit lost value. If you do this in the long term, you are sure to earn money. When I checked the rating histories, I saw that some people were waiting for us to open the rating to “come and do their shopping” before the ratings changed, as we used to say among ourselves.

In fact, a bookmaker is always looking to balance the bets he will have on a bet, in order to make a profit, regardless of the outcome. In theory, it’s simple, but in practice, it’s a hard issue to be resolved! To establish the rating of an event, a bookmaker uses different mathematical models that take into account statistics: history, performance, injuries etc., to determine the rating odds in numbers, but also the amount of money that can be bet. It may seem complicated to imagine, but he may know it because there are matches that are similar, with teams of similar values and therefore with the same amounts of money spread over each team. The bookmaker finally makes sure of course to integrate a margin on each side so that he takes as few risks as possible. I would also like to remind you that bookmakers’ margins in Europe are much higher than abroad (Asian Bookmakers) and that it is, therefore, more difficult to be positive.

The opening odds of a market are very often different from the beginning of a game because there has often been a change in the odds. Sport is not an exact science. It is also for this reason that many bookmakers apply an extra 10% margin on the odds to protect themselves from the best bettors and any mistakes they may have made. Their algorithms are not infallible, fortunately so, otherwise we would not be able to make any money.

Why are the odds more accurate as kick-off approaches?
I’m going to make a little parallel with what’s going on in the stock market – I like to make that kind of parallel because, for me, the stock market and sports betting are really very similar, whether it’s in the analysis of graphics and information. In general, in financial markets, the price of a share fully reflects all available information, i.e. its true value at a given time T. But as soon as additional information about a company or the economy in general arrives, the value of the share will go up or down, depending on whether this information is favorable or not. If this principle is applied to sports betting, it means that the best bettors are those who place their bets as soon as they see a value, based on the information they have – injuries, key players, rumors. They do not wait for the evolution of the odds. The higher the bet amounts are, the more the odds will adjust. And the closer the start of a game is, the higher the volume of money bet (it’s quite strange but many bettors are only interested in a bet 24 hours before the game). The closer the match is, the more likely it is that information that the bookmakers did not have or that was wrong was eliminated. In short, the odds at the sending of the match, when you remove the bookmaker’s margin, generally reflect the true odds of that match.

Here’s how you can enjoy it!
That’s why a bookmaker really takes into account the amount of money bet. It is more complicated for bettors to take this into account, even if it can be seen on some sites, such as Betfair today. Moreover, some use this to anticipate trend reversals, maybe position themselves on a Back and resell as a Lay. It may be a little technical for those who are not really in the sports betting business yet, but that’s how it works. If you are interested, you can join my blog to find information and advice on the subject. I am also preparing a show with a guest on sports trading and you will see that it is really very interesting.

As you have understood, it is extremely rare to obtain perfectly balanced markets, especially at the beginning of the delisting process. And experienced gamblers can take advantage of it.

Everyone bets, have bet or will bet. Free bet and betting info.

All people are betting.
But first, let’s agree on the betting terms. What is a bet? It is an uncertain choice based on a series of objective and/or subjective. Nothing more, nothing less. Playing the trifecta on horses race is a kind of bet too, of course. Playing the lottery or any other game is a bet. Playing poker is also a bet or a series of complex bets. On the other hand, playing chess or a strategy game does not mean a bet. But this is about not a good way to play! Any choice based on data is a gamble. In fact, in practice, in life, any choice is a gamble. When you dress in the morning by looking at the clouds or feeling on the quality of the bottom of the air, you make a bet: if you think it will rain, you will dress accordingly. If you make the bet that it won’t rain, you’ll wear a beautiful sleeved shirt short and it would be better if the sky would prove you right! When you choose one checkout over another at the supermarket, when you choose a route when you buy shares on the stock market when you choose a dish at the restaurant etc. And by the way, there’s a good chance that you’re a fan of betting in your daily life: “I bet you this path is shorter”, “I bet you that the store is closed”, “I bet you she’ll say no”, “I bet you, that Doe will become a minister in the next government”, “I’ll tell you to bet he’s going to wear his houndstooth jacket,” “I bet you he’s still going to come up with a lame excuse.”

Nothing new about this, the history of betting is lost at the bottom of the ages. Anticipating the future, predicting it, glimpsing it, is for some people a challenge and a challenge. Sports betting have existed almost since the invention of the sport itself. In the case of the Greeks, already, the sport is financed by stadium admissions and betting. A specialist in ancient sport and professor has highlighted the intrinsic link between sport and money since ancient times. In Rome, the stars of circus games win a million sesterces. The checkers are transferred from one faction (so club or franchise) to the other. Betting money is financing this sports show whose development Herodotus himself. As you can see, we don’t invent anything by betting 1 euro on Nadal or Barcelona

Five good reasons to bet online on sports
1. By betting online on sports, you will have more chances of winnings than Lotto and other traditional scratch cards. The French people are fond of scratch cards. You should know that the French-woman of the Games pays back between 54.6 and 66% of the total bets with, depending on the games, from one in six to one in twenty-nine chances of winning a win that reimburses you for your bet. I would like you to know that PMU only pays back about 72% of the earnings. In sports betting, your chances of winning on a football match balanced are one in three (team 1 win, draw or team victory 2), your chances of winning on a match of balanced tennis are one in two (player 1 wins, player 2 wins). Significantly higher percentages, even in playing randomly! Finally, you should know that on average a bookmaker is required to pay at least 83% of the sums played (meaning 1,83-1,83 odds).
2. By betting online on sports, you will have a better chance of winning because you can rely on sports logic. Until proven otherwise, the 37-ball is no more likely to be shot than the 13-ball in the Lotto. Until proven otherwise, you buy scratch games without being able to choose them with knowledge of cause (unless the complacent tobacconist allows you to scratch before paying!). When you bet on Manchester City in the Eglish Premier League, you know who you’re betting on and you can gather objective elements allowing you to make your decision. The chance is weighted by the sporting logic, which increases your chances of winning and increases your decision-making power.
3. By betting online on the sport, you will have more choices than at Sports lotto or traditional football lotto. You can bet on a multitude of sports, competitions, events; you can bet on the result of a match or on the action (the scorer, the number of goals scored etc.). This range of choices will give even more weight to your knowledge and statistics, which automatically increases your chances of winning. Free bets are available from bookmakers more often.
4. By betting online on sports, you will be more active than in the Lotto or traditional Sports Lotto. You can bet at any time, one year before the event, two weeks before, one minute before and sometimes even during the game! We can now bet on live on some games. You will have plenty of time to see if your team is in shape or not before placing your bet. An advantage on any other form of play.
5. By betting online on sports, you will enjoy more comfort and have more fun. Fill in a grid or scratch a ticket on a counter corner can be fun, but not always comfortable. By betting online, you can bet from home or from a friend, in the evening, in the afternoon, whenever you want, between the pear and the cheese and without the need for change in your pocket. In addition, your pleasure will be extended: scratching a game takes a few seconds; betting 1 euro on a match and following it will give you strong sensations for an hour and a half!

My first bet step-by-step
Some preconditions must be met: to have over 18 years of age (you will need to provide a photocopy of your identity document under penalty of seeing the bookmaker block your account) and a card National Identity Registry currently in force. You will also need an account bank supplied, it goes without saying. The registration form is essentially the same as for the is registered on this or that site. It is of course oriented towards concerns security related (your age, password etc.) and to utility questions (address, phone etc.). You can start playing, but you won’t be able to access all of the services and collect your winnings only after having received by mail a personal code that will allow you to validate your registration.

But from now on you can make a deposit and play.
You will not be able to credit your account with less than 10 euros with almost any bookmaker. If you enjoy having a free cash bonus which is better than any free bet offer you should follow all steps written.  With your account credited, you can start your first bet. You’ve decided to bet on League 1 football. Nothing could be easier, just click on “League 1” in the football section of the left column. A page appears then, proposing matches and odd numbers. As you will notice, a window appeared at the screen: this is my bet ticket. You can see the rating on which I am standing. just clicked. Be careful, that doesn’t mean I bet. These are the following just a selection. A “bet” box allows me to enter “blank”. any bet whatsoever. The bookmaker then shows the possible gain. If I then click on the “Bet Now” banner, the bet will be actually recorded and the amount deducted from my account in a way that irreversible.

The date and time of the bet are specified on the screen, as well as the free bet reference. In case of a dispute between you and the bookmaker, this reference number will speed up the processing of your question or request. your request. The “simple” mention indicates that it is a bet on an event taken before the beginning of the meeting. The competition is recalled in bold just below the sport concerned. My bet is indicated below again. The bet is then indicated, identifiable by the acronym attached to it, followed by the rating and the expectation of winning, which is the odds multiplied by the stake. A “print” icon indicates that you can print with a single click this information. Once you have placed your first bet and verified that it has been placed been taken by the bookie, all you have to do is follow the match or wait and do something else. Pushed by curiosity, you will probably find out if you’ve won. All you need is yourself go to the “Completed” sub-section under the heading “My bets”. The date and time of the bet are recalled, as well as the reference.

The type of bet is indicated: “Simple” for bets on a sporting event taken before the start of the match (pre-game event), “Live” for bets taken during the match. The competition is recalled in bold, just below the sport concerned. My bet is indicated is under again. If it matches my bet, it means I won. If it doesn’t match, I lost. The bet is followed by the € sign, which distinguishes it from the odds on the adjacent column. Finally, the last column is not the potential winnings but the actual winnings, indicated if the bet is won. If nothing is indicated, it means that the bet is lost. Just add the numbers in the betting column and compare them to the sum of the winnings column to see if my day was positive. This is the case here. The bookmaker then automatically credits your winnings to your account, which appears on the home page. He can credit you in a few seconds or take several tens of minutes. It all depends on the volume of business to be done. You know almost everything. what you couldn’t ignore!

The hardest part starts here. Why does Chelsea have a rating of 1.95? How to do it calculates this rating (odd)? Do I always want to bet on the favorites? Is there a martingale? Which expert to listen to? On which sport to bet? How much do I have to bet on each free bet? What if I lose? What to do if I win? If these questions burn your lips, the answers may be waiting for you in the future. How much do you bet? What will be your stake? If you want to play at the best odds bookmaker, you should try Pinnacle.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool (01 January 2014 15:00) and the match dropping odds

We are back on the football English Championships (01 January 2014 15:00 GMT) when Sheffield hosted Blackpool.

In the past 3 days the odds for Sheffield to win the match dropped day by day from 2.740 to 2.250 (which represents 0.49 dropping odds => means 18% less than opening odds)

Dropping odds are showed below:

Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool (01 January 2014) Moneyline 1X2 odds movement

In that period of existing odds, the 1X odds dropped from 1.505 to 1.362 is at the same value as the 12 odds (when the match starts).

Dropping odds for 1X are:

Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool (01 January 2014) Double chance odds movement

History betting odds movement of this match can be found here: Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool

The match was ending to 2-0 victory of Sheffield, so a bet on the host team was a good one.